Written by: NFL Sports

Conference Title Matchups and Historical Super Bowl Stats

With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, they just jumped up the boards with a much higher statistical probability to win Super Bowl 55. Although the Chiefs are still the Super Bowl odds favorites, the gap has narrowed some.

We are down to just four teams, and now the statistical probability is as follows:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs, 28.1%
  • The Green Bay Packers, 26.2%
  • The Tampa Bay Bucs, 26.2%
  • The Buffalo Bills, 19.5%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers -3.5

As of Monday afternoon, the Green Bay Packers are -3.5 favorite over the soon to be visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I have to admit. The playoffs this year are giving us the matchups that we’ve always wanted. We got to see Brady against Brees, and now we get to see Brady versus Rodgers in another clash of future hall of fame QBs.

One thing that worries me for Bucs fans is the fact that Antonio Brown left the field last week and is questionable with a bum knee for the showdown against the Packers. I have a feeling he’ll play no matter what, as it’s do or die, but it isn’t likely that he’ll be 100%.

Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS over their last seven games, and they have won six straight. On the flip side, Green Bay has won seven straight and is also 5-2 ATS over their last seven. Another interesting statistic to be aware of is Tampa Bay has lost 15 out of their last 16 visits to Green Bay. With Tom and Gronk on the field, I don’t think that stat is as significant of a factor –especially considering foul weather. Still, it needs to be noted as it is a telling piece of historical data.

Both teams played well in the Divisional Round. Tampa Bay beat the Saints 30-20, stomping them as +2.5 point underdogs. The Packers crushed the rams 32-18, easily covering the 7-point spread that sportsbooks had hanging on the boards.

If the Buccaneers’ defense can do to Green Bay what they did to the Saints, then they have a legitimate chance of winning in Lambeau. That said, I don’t think they can. This Green Bay offense is firing on all cylinders, and we’ve seen time and time again that defenses are trying to play catch-up with Aaron Rodgers as he steps under center. One analyst said, ‘it’s almost like Rodgers has a smirk because he steps up to the line of scrimmage, and he knows where the ball is going, but you [the defense] don’t.

If the number moves down to three, I will take the Packers to win and cover. Right now, I am just on the Packers to win at home in Lambeau.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs -3

I have to by saying that the Cleveland Browns made me some money last week. I took them +10 and cashed in on the backdoor cover in a big way. Now, the Chiefs are only favored by three points.

This will be another great game to watch. It isn’t the mechanical precision and leadership that we see with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, but two young guns with perhaps the biggest arms (not literally) in the NFL. Mahomes and Josh Allen can both huck that ball downfield.

So, it’s two high-powered offenses with great defenses colliding. The outcome of the game could depend on the weather. Right now, it’s looking like we could see a rainy Sunday in KC, which would limit some of the potential for those downfield bombs.

Josh Allen and the Bills do have a chance at winning this one, but my early lean is for the Kansas City to win and cover the three-point spread.

So, I have a feeling we’ll see the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs meeting in Tampa Bay for the Super Bowl. But wouldn’t it be kinda’ cool if the Buccs had home-field advantage in the biggest game of the season?

Super Bowl Closing Point Spreads

  • 2020 | -1.5, KC Chiefs, the Favorites (KC) won
  • 2019 | -2.5, NE Patriots, the Favorites (NE) won
  • 2018 | -4.5, NE Patriots, the Underdogs (Eagles) won
  • 2017 | -3, NE Patriots, the Favorites won
  • 2016 | -4.5, Carolina, the Underdogs (Denver) won
  • 2015 | -1, Seattle, the Underdogs (Patriots) won
  • 2014 | -2, Denver, the Underdog (Seattle) won
  • 2013 | -4.5, SF 49ers, the Underdogs (Baltimore) won
  • 2012 | -2.4 NE Patriots, the Underdogs (NY Giants) won
  • 2011 | -3 GB Packers, the Favorites (GB) won

It’s interesting to note that the favorite has only won in four of the last ten Super Bowls. If we stretch that out another ten Super Bowls, going back to 2001, the underdogs won seven times. So, in 20 years, we’ve seen the underdogs win at a clip of 13 to 7. This breaks down to dogs winning the Super Bowl 65% of the time in modern history.

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Tags: , , , , , , , , Last modified: January 22, 2021